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#1
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Forecasting Error
If you go to
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...5oWuh8e2RR7hMQ You will see my spreadsheet. What I'm trying to figure out is a simple method of Forecasting Choices. The formula I use (in cell B9 in this example) is =IF(B2<FALSE(),IF(ROUND(((B2/$H$3)*$C$7),0)<1,1,ROUND(((B2/$H$3)*$C $7),0)),0) What it does is: Takes a set of observation values, and presents a value for each choice by multiplying a target total by the percentage of each choice compared to the original sum total. Check to see if the observed value is not False (choice is not available). Check to see if the presented value is less than 1, if so, make it 1 Generate a presented value if not False and not less than 1 With a Small & Medium choice across the Colors the outcome seems ok. But once I add in a Large Choice the outcome does not match the target. Any one see an error? Maybe another way to do this? |
#2
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Forecasting Error
caveman.savant wrote:
If you go to http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...5oWuh8e2RR7hMQ You will see my spreadsheet. What I'm trying to figure out is a simple method of Forecasting Choices. The formula I use (in cell B9 in this example) is =IF(B2<FALSE(),IF(ROUND(((B2/$H$3)*$C$7),0)<1,1,ROUND(((B2/$H$3)*$C $7),0)),0) What it does is: Takes a set of observation values, and presents a value for each choice by multiplying a target total by the percentage of each choice compared to the original sum total. Check to see if the observed value is not False (choice is not available). Check to see if the presented value is less than 1, if so, make it 1 Generate a presented value if not False and not less than 1 With a Small & Medium choice across the Colors the outcome seems ok. But once I add in a Large Choice the outcome does not match the target. Any one see an error? Maybe another way to do this? An error in your logic, maybe. In the block that includes "next 12 choices" with a "large" choice row, there are 13 non-false possibilities, to each of which you impose a minimum value of 1, so you can't possibly sum to 12 in this block. I'd fix that aspect first. |
#3
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Forecasting Error
You are right. I've changed the Values from 12 to 20. I still get
uneven results On Apr 21, 6:22*pm, smartin wrote: caveman.savant wrote: If you go to http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...5oWuh8e2RR7hMQ You will see my spreadsheet. What I'm trying to figure out is a simple method of Forecasting Choices. The formula I use (in cell B9 in this example) is =IF(B2<FALSE(),IF(ROUND(((B2/$H$3)*$C$7),0)<1,1,ROUND(((B2/$H$3)*$C $7),0)),0) What it does is: Takes a set of observation values, and presents a value for each choice by multiplying a target total by the percentage of each choice compared to the original sum total. Check to see if the observed value is not False (choice is not available). Check to see if the presented value is less than 1, if so, make it 1 Generate a presented value if not False and not less than 1 With a Small & Medium choice across the Colors the outcome seems ok. But once I add in a Large Choice the outcome does not match the target. Any one see an error? Maybe another way to do this? An error in your logic, maybe. In the block that includes "next 12 choices" with a "large" choice row, there are 13 non-false possibilities, to each of which you impose a minimum value of 1, so you can't possibly sum to 12 in this block. I'd fix that aspect first. |
#4
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Forecasting Error
Oops I just realized when I was playing with your worksheet a couple
nights ago a change I made was saved... Sorry, I had no idea I could do that. I think I changed it back (cell L9 was the only thing I changed), but you might want to check. Onward... Ok I think I see what you are trying to do. You want to scale the values in L2:Q5 so the new sum is equal to some target. But, you do not want any new value less than 1, and only integer values are allowed. I think it will be sheer luck if this ever works. Think of this: when you multiply an integer by n/m you likely get some decimal portion*, which you are discarding by rounding. Since you are rounding these little errors will sometimes sum close to zero, but this will not always be the case. And, since you impose a minimum of 1 in the result, you introduce a positive bias in the error. So that's what it comes down to: your requirements cannot be met due to rounding errors in the math. *trivial cases excepted, which do not apply here for the most part caveman.savant wrote: You are right. I've changed the Values from 12 to 20. I still get uneven results On Apr 21, 6:22 pm, smartin wrote: caveman.savant wrote: If you go to http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...5oWuh8e2RR7hMQ You will see my spreadsheet. What I'm trying to figure out is a simple method of Forecasting Choices. The formula I use (in cell B9 in this example) is =IF(B2<FALSE(),IF(ROUND(((B2/$H$3)*$C$7),0)<1,1,ROUND(((B2/$H$3)*$C $7),0)),0) What it does is: Takes a set of observation values, and presents a value for each choice by multiplying a target total by the percentage of each choice compared to the original sum total. Check to see if the observed value is not False (choice is not available). Check to see if the presented value is less than 1, if so, make it 1 Generate a presented value if not False and not less than 1 With a Small & Medium choice across the Colors the outcome seems ok. But once I add in a Large Choice the outcome does not match the target. Any one see an error? Maybe another way to do this? An error in your logic, maybe. In the block that includes "next 12 choices" with a "large" choice row, there are 13 non-false possibilities, to each of which you impose a minimum value of 1, so you can't possibly sum to 12 in this block. I'd fix that aspect first. |
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