I am trying to get a better forecast.

Currently I create a order curve by day based on the actual flow of orders
for a model catalog that mailed the year previous.


After the new catalog mails, I compare its daily actual order flow to what I
had projected. Say a catalog is not performing the way I expected - early
on (the first 10 days) it is difficult to determine why the catalog is not
performing - either it is not a great catalog or it was delayed in the mail
system and will catch up as the mail gets through.

I do get seed reports telling me how the mail delivery is on the catalog.
Say the model book had 50% delivery in the first 7 days. I know the new book
has only 35% delivery in the first seven days. How can I reforecast based on
this info?

The life of a catalog is 80 days, so I need to spread the adjustments out
over that time.

Is there a formula I could use to reforecast with the new data?

Thansks,
Tom