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Forecast using 2 data sets
I am trying to predict future values using 2 data sets. I'm not sure if
Forecast is the right function or if something else is better suited for this. My situation could best be illustrated using this simplified example. I have 2006 data for weeks 1 thru 6. I'm trying to predict future 2006 values for weeks 7 thru 13. I alse have historical data for weeks 7 thru 13 from last year (2005). I would like to predict weeks 7 thru 13 this year using the preceding 6 week time frame, but also want to use the corresponding time frame from last year to factor in the appropriate seasonality trend. Can someone point me in the right direction as to how to set this up? Below is my attempt at drawing out the data that I have available to use. wk1 wk2.....wk6 wk7 wk8......wk13 2005 9 8 10 2006 10 11 13 ? ? ? Thanks, Jeff |
#2
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Forecast using 2 data sets
Jeff -
It is unlikely that a "simplified example" describes enough of your problem. The first step should be to plot the historical data to visually identify patterns. A second step might be to select an appropriate model. In your situation this might involve trend (linear or quadratic) and seasonality (using indicator variables, lagged variables, or classical time series decomposition index numbers). After fitting a model to the historical data, finally prepare predictions of future values. Two example XLS files are available at http://www.mikemiddleton.com. These examples do not have step-by-step instructions; more detailed descriptions are in Ch. 20 Time Series Seasonality of my book Data Analysis Using Microsoft Excel: Updated for Office XP. But the examples may give you some guidance. - Mike "goofy11" wrote in message ... I am trying to predict future values using 2 data sets. I'm not sure if Forecast is the right function or if something else is better suited for this. My situation could best be illustrated using this simplified example. I have 2006 data for weeks 1 thru 6. I'm trying to predict future 2006 values for weeks 7 thru 13. I alse have historical data for weeks 7 thru 13 from last year (2005). I would like to predict weeks 7 thru 13 this year using the preceding 6 week time frame, but also want to use the corresponding time frame from last year to factor in the appropriate seasonality trend. Can someone point me in the right direction as to how to set this up? Below is my attempt at drawing out the data that I have available to use. wk1 wk2.....wk6 wk7 wk8......wk13 2005 9 8 10 2006 10 11 13 ? ? ? Thanks, Jeff |
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