Home |
Search |
Today's Posts |
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Forecast Daily Usage
I'm needing some assistance on the best calculation to use in Excel to forecast daily usage. I know that there are 11 days were usage is approx 30% lighter than the other 19-20 days. I also know that Sunday is lower and Friday is the heaviest.
I've created an allocation matrix that based on days of the week and days of the month. Here's where I'm stumped! I will be given the month totals, but I need to allocate it by day and the monthly allocation needs to total the monthly figure provided. What's the best calculation to forecast the next months activity based on this information? I have the matrix and I've tired numerous calculation based on days of the week and a separate calculation based on days of the month, but overall total does not equal the number provided. My question for all the forecast experts: is an allocation matrix the best to forecast the daily fluctuations or should I be using another methodology? I don't think a moving average will work b/c it will remove the seasonality that I need to reflect the monthly activity. Any other ideas? Thanks! |
#2
Posted to microsoft.public.excel.programming
|
|||
|
|||
Forecast Daily Usage
On 21/05/2012 16:13, forecastnovice wrote:
I'm needing some assistance on the best calculation to use in Excel to forecast daily usage. I know that there are 11 days were usage is approx 30% lighter than the other 19-20 days. I also know that Sunday is lower and Friday is the heaviest. I've created an allocation matrix that based on days of the week and days of the month. Here's where I'm stumped! I will be given the month totals, but I need to allocate it by day and the monthly allocation needs to total the monthly figure provided. What's the best calculation to forecast the next months activity based on this information? I have the matrix and I've tired numerous calculation based on days of the week and a separate calculation based on days of the month, but overall total does not equal the number provided. My question for all the forecast experts: is an allocation matrix the best to forecast the daily fluctuations or should I be using another methodology? I don't think a moving average will work b/c it will remove the seasonality that I need to reflect the monthly activity. Any other ideas? Thanks! How many months of training data do you have? Any half decent model must allow for seasonal monthly variation, day of month and day of week. Least squares fit your model against your training data and then look at the residuals for any other systematic factors. Icecream for instance sales tend to follow the weather strongly. You will always be lagging the reality if you only use just the last month. Special cases include that you don't sell stuff on days when you are closed like National Holidays (or you might sell more if you are one of the destination places that are open and where people go on such days). -- Regards, Martin Brown |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
Thank you Martin for your advice! I really appreciate it! |
Reply |
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Forum | |||
HOW DO I FREEZE DATA THAT CHANGES DAILY. dAILY/MONTHLY BUDGET | Excel Discussion (Misc queries) | |||
I need a template to record my daily electricity usage | Excel Discussion (Misc queries) | |||
Linking Daily Worksheet To Daily Invoice Total | Excel Worksheet Functions | |||
Forecast | Excel Worksheet Functions | |||
forecast | Excel Discussion (Misc queries) |