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(Not exactly an Excel question. But I know a lot of Excel users do
this, and I know there are a number of statistics-savvy participants in these newsgroups.) If I have historical daily price data (y1, y2,..., yN) for a stock or fund, the daily return is computed by y2/y1, y3/y2,..., yN/y[N-1]. Typically, the annualized average rate of return is computed by the geometric average, namely (yN/y1)^(252/(N-1))-1. The annualized standard deviation of the rate of return is computed by the antilog of the standard deviation of the log returns, e.g. exp(stdev(ln({y2/ y1,...,yN/y[N-1]})*sqrt(252))-1. (Note: 252 is used instead of 365 because there are typically 252 trading days per year.) That method -- especially the annulaized geometric average -- provides a "warm fuzzy" feeling because when the initial investment is multiplied by the compounded annualized rate of return, we get the current value of the investment. The annualized geometric mean is comparable to the APY for other asset classes, notably cash. I realize that we must compute the annualized statistics in that manner when we have insufficient data, e.g. 3-12 months of daily prices. But I wonder: if I have sufficient data (i.e. many years of daily prices), would it be reasonable and arguably better to simply compute the arithmetic average and arithmetic standard deviation of the year- over-year daily returns? |
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