Hello Luke,

Just a guess: If you want to have the most often occuring value, enter
into B1:
=MODE(A1:A14)

Or, if you like its "historical" likelihood:
=COUNTIF(A1:A14,MODE(A1:A14))/COUNT(A1:A14)

If that's not what you intend give another detailed example, please.

Regards,
Bernd

Bernd,
Thank you, I basically want to predict the outcome. An educated guess so to
speak.
The result I get with the historical likelihood (which seems to be what I am
looking for) is 0.142857142857143.

Is there a way to translate that result to a "0, 1, 2, ..or 9" as an answer?
in other words as in my example, would "5" be the most likely number to be
next or something else like 0, 3, 8, 6 or so on through 9.

I want the result to be of the numbers that I put into A1:A14.

Hope this makes since.
Luke



"Bernd P" wrote:

Hello Luke,

Just a guess: If you want to have the most often occuring value, enter
into B1:
=MODE(A1:A14)

Or, if you like its "historical" likelihood:
=COUNTIF(A1:A14,MODE(A1:A14))/COUNT(A1:A14)

If that's not what you intend give another detailed example, please.

Regards,
Bernd

Hello Luke,

What's wrong with MODE(A1:A14)?

Regards,
Bernd

Hi,

Predicting the next item in a series depends on what the basis of that
series is. If it is completely random then the next number is random -
history would have no impact on the future.

You could say that the next value is most likely to be the average of the
historic values in that cast
=AVERAGE(A1:A14)
To return whole number you would round this =ROUND(AVERAGE(A1:A14),0)

If you assumed that the next item was most likely to be the most frequently
appearing value (historically) then you would use MODE.

The problem is you have to define how the series develops. In other words
there is no correct answer to your question as stated.

Another example, suppose you assume that there is a linear trend in you data
you could use:

=TREND(A1:A14,,15)

And you could round this.
--
If this helps, please click the Yes button

Cheers,
Shane Devenshire


"Luke" wrote:

Bernd,
Thank you, I basically want to predict the outcome. An educated guess so to
speak.
The result I get with the historical likelihood (which seems to be what I am
looking for) is 0.142857142857143.

Is there a way to translate that result to a "0, 1, 2, ..or 9" as an answer?
in other words as in my example, would "5" be the most likely number to be
next or something else like 0, 3, 8, 6 or so on through 9.

I want the result to be of the numbers that I put into A1:A14.

Hope this makes since.
Luke



"Bernd P" wrote:

Hello Luke,

Just a guess: If you want to have the most often occuring value, enter
into B1:
=MODE(A1:A14)

Or, if you like its "historical" likelihood:
=COUNTIF(A1:A14,MODE(A1:A14))/COUNT(A1:A14)

If that's not what you intend give another detailed example, please.

Regards,
Bernd

"Bernd P" wrote:

Hello Luke,

What's wrong with MODE(A1:A14)?

Regards,
Bernd


Hi Bernd,

Nothing, however I like the idea of historical likelihood and was just
courious. I need to understand how it is functioning historically so that the
result makes sense.
Thank you for the help

Hi Shane,

You guys certainly gave me something to think about. I want to learn more
about what you have shown me and then if I have questions I will repost and
be more specific about what I am trying to accomplish.

Thank you so much for your input.
Luke



"Shane Devenshire" wrote:

Hi,

Predicting the next item in a series depends on what the basis of that
series is. If it is completely random then the next number is random -
history would have no impact on the future.

You could say that the next value is most likely to be the average of the
historic values in that cast
=AVERAGE(A1:A14)
To return whole number you would round this =ROUND(AVERAGE(A1:A14),0)

If you assumed that the next item was most likely to be the most frequently
appearing value (historically) then you would use MODE.

The problem is you have to define how the series develops. In other words
there is no correct answer to your question as stated.

Another example, suppose you assume that there is a linear trend in you data
you could use:

=TREND(A1:A14,,15)

And you could round this.
--
If this helps, please click the Yes button

Cheers,
Shane Devenshire


"Luke" wrote:

Bernd,
Thank you, I basically want to predict the outcome. An educated guess so to
speak.
The result I get with the historical likelihood (which seems to be what I am
looking for) is 0.142857142857143.

Is there a way to translate that result to a "0, 1, 2, ..or 9" as an answer?
in other words as in my example, would "5" be the most likely number to be
next or something else like 0, 3, 8, 6 or so on through 9.

I want the result to be of the numbers that I put into A1:A14.

Hope this makes since.
Luke



"Bernd P" wrote:

Hello Luke,

Just a guess: If you want to have the most often occuring value, enter
into B1:
=MODE(A1:A14)

Or, if you like its "historical" likelihood:
=COUNTIF(A1:A14,MODE(A1:A14))/COUNT(A1:A14)

If that's not what you intend give another detailed example, please.

Regards,
Bernd

Hello Luke,

A naive and pragmatic historical lookback needs your definition of the
"horizon" you want to take for the lookback.

A horizon of 1 day lookback would just give you the last number in
A14: 3. That's MODE(A14)
A horizon of 5 days: MODE(A10:A14) would result in 1.
The full history of 14 days MODE(A1:A14) would give you 2.

So it might make sense for you to look at the array
MODE(A14)
MODE(A13:A14)
MODE(A12:A14)
....

But I hope that you are not a doctor who will take this scheme to
predict the desease of his next patient :-)

Regards,
Bernd

just a thought
0.142857142857143 = 1/7



On 17 Sty, 22:32, Luke wrote:
Bernd,
Thank you, I basically want to predict the outcome. An educated guess so to
speak.
The result I get with the historical likelihood (which seems to be what I am
looking for) is 0.142857142857143.

Is there a way to translate that result to a "0, 1, 2, ..or 9" as an answer?
in other words as in my example, would "5" be the most likely number to be
next or something else like 0, 3, 8, 6 or so on through 9. *

I want the result to be of the numbers that I put into A1:A14.

Hope this makes since.
Luke



"Bernd P" wrote:
Hello Luke,

Just a guess: If you want to have the most often occuring value, enter
into B1:
=MODE(A1:A14)

Or, if you like its "historical" likelihood:
=COUNTIF(A1:A14,MODE(A1:A14))/COUNT(A1:A14)

If that's not what you intend give another detailed example, please.

Regards,
Bernd- Ukryj cytowany tekst -

- Poka¿ cytowany tekst -

Hello Jarek,

No, its 2/14 :-)

The MODE 2 is appearing twice in this given sequence of 14 numbers.
2/14 = .142.... = about 14% likelihood.

Regards,
Bernd

ooops, sorry
did not think of that...
;-)

On 18 Sty, 12:41, Bernd P wrote:
Hello Jarek,

No, its 2/14 :-)

The MODE 2 is appearing twice in this given sequence of 14 numbers.
2/14 = .142.... = about 14% likelihood.

Regards,
Bernd

LOL Bernd!

Not hardly a doctor.. I am just poking around at the pick three lottery and
although I know I would never get close to any serious wins I like to see how
things play out given the past history.

Probably should have mentioned that but I didn't want the nay sayers to
intervene. It clouds things up.

"Bernd P" wrote:

Hello Luke,

A naive and pragmatic historical lookback needs your definition of the
"horizon" you want to take for the lookback.

A horizon of 1 day lookback would just give you the last number in
A14: 3. That's MODE(A14)
A horizon of 5 days: MODE(A10:A14) would result in 1.
The full history of 14 days MODE(A1:A14) would give you 2.

So it might make sense for you to look at the array
MODE(A14)
MODE(A13:A14)
MODE(A12:A14)
....

But I hope that you are not a doctor who will take this scheme to
predict the desease of his next patient :-)

Regards,
Bernd