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#1
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I thought I would use FORECAST, but maybe I am wrong...
I thought I was using the right function command, but perhaps not. Here is
my issue: I have a roster of football players who have stats set-up in Excel. I want to be able to, after a series of games already played, forecast or predict the what the outcome of the next game might be. For example: A running back runs for 97 yards, 36 yards, 97 yards, and 102 yards in the first four games of the season. I want to forecast what he might rush for in the 5th game. How do I do this in Excel? |
#2
Posted to microsoft.public.excel.worksheet.functions
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I thought I would use FORECAST, but maybe I am wrong...
Yes, FORECAST would be OK if you believe in a linear best fit and
extrapolating. If your game numbers 1 to 4 are in column A, & your distances in column B, then use =FORECAST(5,B1:B4,A1:A4) You can, of course, also show this graphically by selecting the range with the game numbers & distances, Insert/ Chart/ XY (& choose an appropriate sub-type). Finish the chart, then select the series, right-click/ Add Trendline, and choose the option to extend forward by 1 unit. -- David Biddulph "RobertStanke" wrote in message ... I thought I was using the right function command, but perhaps not. Here is my issue: I have a roster of football players who have stats set-up in Excel. I want to be able to, after a series of games already played, forecast or predict the what the outcome of the next game might be. For example: A running back runs for 97 yards, 36 yards, 97 yards, and 102 yards in the first four games of the season. I want to forecast what he might rush for in the 5th game. How do I do this in Excel? |
#3
Posted to microsoft.public.excel.worksheet.functions
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I thought I would use FORECAST, but maybe I am wrong...
Just curious so I know what I am looking at when I see the results... do you
know what logic Excel is using to determine the value that outputs? BTW, I tried it and it seems to be working. I am assuming I can do that for as many weeks as I want and get an indication of what the end of the year total will be, right? "David Biddulph" wrote: Yes, FORECAST would be OK if you believe in a linear best fit and extrapolating. If your game numbers 1 to 4 are in column A, & your distances in column B, then use =FORECAST(5,B1:B4,A1:A4) You can, of course, also show this graphically by selecting the range with the game numbers & distances, Insert/ Chart/ XY (& choose an appropriate sub-type). Finish the chart, then select the series, right-click/ Add Trendline, and choose the option to extend forward by 1 unit. -- David Biddulph "RobertStanke" wrote in message ... I thought I was using the right function command, but perhaps not. Here is my issue: I have a roster of football players who have stats set-up in Excel. I want to be able to, after a series of games already played, forecast or predict the what the outcome of the next game might be. For example: A running back runs for 97 yards, 36 yards, 97 yards, and 102 yards in the first four games of the season. I want to forecast what he might rush for in the 5th game. How do I do this in Excel? |
#4
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I thought I would use FORECAST, but maybe I am wrong...
It's a least squares linear regression.
There's more info on FORECAST at http://support.microsoft.com/kb/828236 You may want to look at the LINEST function http://support.microsoft.com/kb/828533 which gives more indications of the quality of the correlation. Yes, you can extrapolate as long as you like, but I would have no faith in predicting results in that way (and 4 previous results is a very small sample from which to draw any statistical conclusions). Excel also has various random number generating functions which may be equally useful. -- David Biddulph "RobertStanke" wrote in message ... Just curious so I know what I am looking at when I see the results... do you know what logic Excel is using to determine the value that outputs? BTW, I tried it and it seems to be working. I am assuming I can do that for as many weeks as I want and get an indication of what the end of the year total will be, right? "David Biddulph" wrote: Yes, FORECAST would be OK if you believe in a linear best fit and extrapolating. If your game numbers 1 to 4 are in column A, & your distances in column B, then use =FORECAST(5,B1:B4,A1:A4) You can, of course, also show this graphically by selecting the range with the game numbers & distances, Insert/ Chart/ XY (& choose an appropriate sub-type). Finish the chart, then select the series, right-click/ Add Trendline, and choose the option to extend forward by 1 unit. -- David Biddulph "RobertStanke" wrote in message ... I thought I was using the right function command, but perhaps not. Here is my issue: I have a roster of football players who have stats set-up in Excel. I want to be able to, after a series of games already played, forecast or predict the what the outcome of the next game might be. For example: A running back runs for 97 yards, 36 yards, 97 yards, and 102 yards in the first four games of the season. I want to forecast what he might rush for in the 5th game. How do I do this in Excel? |
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