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Default Predicting an Intersection of a Linear Trend

Here is the problem as it stands:

First some sample data:

02/05/07 88.9%
02/12/07 80.6%
02/19/07 85.8%
02/26/07 84.4%
03/05/07 93.0%
03/12/07 90.6%
03/19/07 96.3%
03/26/07 87.0%
04/02/07 90.4%
04/09/07 91.0%
04/16/07 84.7%
04/23/07 91.7%

What Needs to be found:
Based on the trend when will the utilization go above 95% based on a
linear growth trend.

Why:
I need to graph a bar indicating when that 95% mark is met (for
capacity planning.)

How did this come about:
Normally I throw on a trendline and manually move a marker. I would
rather, for the sake of accuracy have the indicator plotted.

Any suggestions? All I need back is the date this happens (I'll be
setting the bar to 100% manually as to make a wall)

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Default Predicting an Intersection of a Linear Trend

If y=intercept+slope*x, then x=(y-intercept)/slope

Simply calculate x for y=0.95 (95%). Slope and intercept can be obtained
from the worksheet SLOPE and INTERCEPT functions, from the LINEST worksheet
function, or from the chart trendline (formatted to show enough figures for
the equation).

However, a plot of the data suggests the possibility that the utilization
slope (if really linear) may have decreased near the end of March.

Jerry

"Idgarad" wrote:

Here is the problem as it stands:

First some sample data:

02/05/07 88.9%
02/12/07 80.6%
02/19/07 85.8%
02/26/07 84.4%
03/05/07 93.0%
03/12/07 90.6%
03/19/07 96.3%
03/26/07 87.0%
04/02/07 90.4%
04/09/07 91.0%
04/16/07 84.7%
04/23/07 91.7%

What Needs to be found:
Based on the trend when will the utilization go above 95% based on a
linear growth trend.

Why:
I need to graph a bar indicating when that 95% mark is met (for
capacity planning.)

How did this come about:
Normally I throw on a trendline and manually move a marker. I would
rather, for the sake of accuracy have the indicator plotted.

Any suggestions? All I need back is the date this happens (I'll be
setting the bar to 100% manually as to make a wall)


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Default Predicting an Intersection of a Linear Trend

On May 15, 2:34 pm, Jerry W. Lewis wrote:
If y=intercept+slope*x, then x=(y-intercept)/slope

Simply calculate x for y=0.95 (95%). Slope and intercept can be obtained
from the worksheet SLOPE and INTERCEPT functions, from the LINEST worksheet
function, or from the chart trendline (formatted to show enough figures for
the equation).

However, a plot of the data suggests the possibility that the utilization
slope (if really linear) may have decreased near the end of March.

Jerry



"Idgarad" wrote:
Here is the problem as it stands:


First some sample data:


02/05/07 88.9%
02/12/07 80.6%
02/19/07 85.8%
02/26/07 84.4%
03/05/07 93.0%
03/12/07 90.6%
03/19/07 96.3%
03/26/07 87.0%
04/02/07 90.4%
04/09/07 91.0%
04/16/07 84.7%
04/23/07 91.7%


What Needs to be found:
Based on the trend when will the utilization go above 95% based on a
linear growth trend.


Why:
I need to graph a bar indicating when that 95% mark is met (for
capacity planning.)


How did this come about:
Normally I throw on a trendline and manually move a marker. I would
rather, for the sake of accuracy have the indicator plotted.


Any suggestions? All I need back is the date this happens (I'll be
setting the bar to 100% manually as to make a wall)- Hide quoted text -


- Show quoted text -


I can follow to a degree what you are saying but how do I translate
that into an excel formula?

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Default Predicting an Intersection of a Linear Trend

Assuming that the fit should be linear (which is questionable), you simply
use the formula from my previous post, i.e.

=(95%-INTERCEPT(utilization_data,date_data))/SLOPE(utilization_data,date_data)

where utilization_data and date_data point to the locations for the
corresponding data.

Jerry

"Idgarad" wrote:

On May 15, 2:34 pm, Jerry W. Lewis wrote:
If y=intercept+slope*x, then x=(y-intercept)/slope

Simply calculate x for y=0.95 (95%). Slope and intercept can be obtained
from the worksheet SLOPE and INTERCEPT functions, from the LINEST worksheet
function, or from the chart trendline (formatted to show enough figures for
the equation).

However, a plot of the data suggests the possibility that the utilization
slope (if really linear) may have decreased near the end of March.

Jerry



"Idgarad" wrote:
Here is the problem as it stands:


First some sample data:


02/05/07 88.9%
02/12/07 80.6%
02/19/07 85.8%
02/26/07 84.4%
03/05/07 93.0%
03/12/07 90.6%
03/19/07 96.3%
03/26/07 87.0%
04/02/07 90.4%
04/09/07 91.0%
04/16/07 84.7%
04/23/07 91.7%


What Needs to be found:
Based on the trend when will the utilization go above 95% based on a
linear growth trend.


Why:
I need to graph a bar indicating when that 95% mark is met (for
capacity planning.)


How did this come about:
Normally I throw on a trendline and manually move a marker. I would
rather, for the sake of accuracy have the indicator plotted.


Any suggestions? All I need back is the date this happens (I'll be
setting the bar to 100% manually as to make a wall)- Hide quoted text -


- Show quoted text -


I can follow to a degree what you are saying but how do I translate
that into an excel formula?


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Posts: 9
Default Predicting an Intersection of a Linear Trend

On May 21, 11:39 am, Jerry W. Lewis
wrote:
Assuming that the fit should be linear (which is questionable), you simply
use the formula from my previous post, i.e.

=(95%-INTERCEPT(utilization_data,date_data))/SLOPE(utilization_data,date_da*ta)

where utilization_data and date_data point to the locations for the
corresponding data.

Jerry



"Idgarad" wrote:
On May 15, 2:34 pm, Jerry W. Lewis wrote:
If y=intercept+slope*x, then x=(y-intercept)/slope


Simply calculate x for y=0.95 (95%). Slope and intercept can be obtained
from the worksheet SLOPE and INTERCEPT functions, from the LINEST worksheet
function, or from the chart trendline (formatted to show enough figures for
the equation).


However, a plot of the data suggests the possibility that the utilization
slope (if really linear) may have decreased near the end of March.


Jerry


"Idgarad" wrote:
Here is the problem as it stands:


First some sample data:


02/05/07 88.9%
02/12/07 80.6%
02/19/07 85.8%
02/26/07 84.4%
03/05/07 93.0%
03/12/07 90.6%
03/19/07 96.3%
03/26/07 87.0%
04/02/07 90.4%
04/09/07 91.0%
04/16/07 84.7%
04/23/07 91.7%


What Needs to be found:
Based on the trend when will the utilization go above 95% based on a
linear growth trend.


Why:
I need to graph a bar indicating when that 95% mark is met (for
capacity planning.)


How did this come about:
Normally I throw on a trendline and manually move a marker. I would
rather, for the sake of accuracy have the indicator plotted.


Any suggestions? All I need back is the date this happens (I'll be
setting the bar to 100% manually as to make a wall)- Hide quoted text -


- Show quoted text -


I can follow to a degree what you are saying but how do I translate
that into an excel formula?- Hide quoted text -


- Show quoted text -


I got it working, that was a great help. If a linear projection isn't
ideal do you have any reccomendations given the available data and the
goal of having a good accurate projection of when the CPU utilization
is being exceeded?

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