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DangerMouse
 
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Default Rolling Average for Prediction


Hi all,

I'm hoping and anticipating that theres a really simple solution to
this question but I can't seem to get my head around it. Any advice you
could provide would be much appreciated.

I'm simply calculating hit rate, or average on a monthly basis, and I
want this data to inform future months in a predictive fashion.

Thus I have 10 in Jan, 5 in Feb, my avarage is obviously 7.5, thus I
would like all months after Feb to predict the "hit" figure to be 7.5.


I would like this to work on a rolling basis as evidently as the actual
figures are available the average changes and thus so does the
prediction.

I appreciate this isnt the most scientific way to model things but any
assistance would be appreciated.

Thnx


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