Plus, Excel's Bezier curve seems to have its minimum on day 23, not day 24.

Any idea what Herbert Seidenberg is talking about? He claims a "better fit"
in 2007 but does not say better in what way, and like the authors of the
paper, fails to say what kind of fit. Also his download link is useless to
those of us who do not use 2007.

Jerry

"Jon Peltier" wrote:

Oh yeah, I didn't even consider the "smoothed line" method. This in no
way follows the path of the data. The curves are bezier curves
connecting adjacent points, and can stray far from the position of
actual data.

Using smoothed lines is as invalid as using a polynomial fit.
....
What kind of model did they fit their data to? Excel has none that is
valid and comes up with 24.