Very Nice, I will whatch for it.. I am just learning VBA, very light, but I
will be brave. I hope all this helps "HelpMePlease" as well.

Could you look at http://www.freefilehosting.net/download/3fg7a and see if
your VBA will apply to it? You can read about what I am looking for in my
post on 4/22/2008 Subject: "Predict/Probability"

Thank you
Luke

"Gary''s Student" wrote:

Hi Luke:

Thanks for your interest. If you feel comfortable with VBA, then I will
demo a solution completely in VBA. All you would need to do is to paste the
macros into a fresh, new workbook. The macros would create the data on a
worksheet, run the Monti Carlo, prepare the binning and present the
probability distribution.

Check back tomorrow!!
--
Gary''s Student - gsnu200789


"Luke" wrote:

"Gary''s Student" wrote:

You would need to know something about the distribution of the values in the
14 cells. However, let's say you know nothing about the values:

You don't know how large or small they are.
You don't even know if there are repeated values in the 14 or not.

You can STILL get an estimate of the probability by performing a Monti Carlo
analysis.

The first step is to make data. Pick 5 at random, calculate the average and
store the result. Repeat this many, many times. Say we end up with data
from A1 thru A10000 (each cell containing an average)

Now knowing the MAX and MIN of the 10,000 sample we make bins for the data.

The third step is to add counts to the bins based upon the 10,000 values.
The bins represent a probability distribution.

The last step is to compare the reference value with the bin counts.

--
Gary''s Student - gsnu200789


Just wondering if you could provide an example to the answer you provided
that would visually show an elaboration.

Not to hijack this post, but I made a post earlier "Subject:
Predict/Probability" that was, I think, similar but I got no response. I
provided a link to a sample xls file and I would love to finally see a good
visual make up.

Thank you now and well into the future,
Luke