ExcelBanter - View Single Post - Correct process for creating a linear trend line in Excel

Snit[_5_]

On 6/15/12 8:01 PM, in article
, "Onion
Knight" wrote:

This pathetically cross-posted thread only got created because Snit
dumped the idea of using people who are good at math because they
exposed him. Now he's appealing to people who have used the trend line
function in Excel and is, like the post I just showed you, completely
dumping the reason for creating it altogether in the hopes of *saving
face. You'll notice that he is not pointing out how his goal for
creating the trend line is *not* to see if it will be "approriately
fitted to that data" or be "useful in some way" (a thing any sane
person would assume). Gee, do you think he would have received a
different answer had he made that clear? LOL!

Snit made the claim that he created a linear trendline and did so
correctly. I would love to see where you think Snit said the 2011
trend would continue into 2012, unchanged.

I never did... though I said it *might* continue its upward trend or it
*might* stagnate. I did not predict its significant decline.

So for 2011 I was right about my prediction. It would be an interesting
discussion to look into why things changed and I was wrong about the 2012
trend. If Steve and cc wanted to attack me for being wrong, *this* would be
the place to do so because this is the place where I was *actually* wrong.

But they are too lost in what was being discussed to figure this out (even
though I told them). And, of course, they will never admit I was right
about the my method of creating a linear trend line, nor admit I was right
about the sigma line being drawn at the distance from the mean to the
inflection point, nor admit that the examples of poorly depicted sigma lines
were in fact poorly depicted, nor will they admit that I was right to note
that the R^2 value does *not* indicate if the *process* of creating a trend
line is correct or not, etc. cc argued against me on all of these points
and he was wrong. And Steve backed cc because of his illness. And Steve
added his own lunacy in claiming that the purpose of looking at the trend
for one time period necessitates that one expects that trend to continue.
This is even more insane when one considers the linear nature of the trend
line... it is not as a percentage growth rate can continue "into infinity"
as he said. If it did, sometime in the next 100 years the total of Linux
usage would be *greater* than 100%. Maybe someday if Carroll is not being
an ass to me I will explain why this is not a likely scenario. :)

His 2011 trendline fit his claims well. His 2012 tendline did not. You
say that others "exposed him" on this but he never claimed otherwise.

Absolutely correct. I have been clear from the start that the 2012 data did
not fit my prediction.

You are just throwing a toddler tantrum because Snit was proved right
by people who know a lot more than you.

Carroll has had a number of very public bread-downs where he starts accusing
multiple people of being my socks (while at the same time he runs from
answering names he has used), threatens to contact my family and employer,
falsely accuses me of sexually harassing either himself or his
ex-girlfriend, and otherwise just freaks out. He then goes away for a
while, claiming to he has "found a life"... and comes back for another
round.

And this is all without me directly replying to him. Just amazing how
messed up he is.

For the last decade or so you have been following him around lying
about him because your girlfriend dumped your lying ass and you blamed
him. Poor Steve dumped by an insane bitch and unable to get over it.
Yes Steve the woman who dumped your lying ass was insane and evil. If
you had half a brain you would be celebrating that she left you and
not crying about it into the next decade.

Absolutely correct and very well stated.

--
The indisputable facts about that absurd debate: <http://goo.gl/2337P
cc being proved wrong about his stats BS: <http://goo.gl/1aYrP
7 simple questions cc will *never* answer: <http://goo.gl/cNBzu
cc again pretends to be knowledgeable about things he is clueless about.