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LUCK ?
First , sorry for my last post there was a picture attachment that I thought
would paste as text. My problem is how do I get the answer I need it has puzzled me for days,the following formula gives me 15.9% which is correct =1-NORMDIST(1,0,1,TRUE) the number one is derived from the z test which I can not get to work and any help would be great, in the table below WINS BETS 55 100 = Z TEST = 1 = << =1-NORMDIST(1,0,1,TRUE) WHICH GIVES THE 15.9% IF THERE WERE WINS BETS 275 500 = Z TEST = .854 ( THIS IS THE NUMBER I CANT GET ) = 1.3% 550 1000= Z TEST = .842 ( "" "") = .1% THE PARAMETERS FOR THE TEST ARE A = NUMBER OF WINNING SELECTIONS B = NUMBER OF BETS MADE C = A 5% EDGE ON A 50% LINE SEE ARTICLE BELOW --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What we do when testing such information is assume that each bet that he makes has a 50% chance of winning. Because he is betting on the line for each bet, this is of course a good assumption. Naturally he would want this to be greater than 50% so that he can make a profit, but for the time being we will assume that it is 50%. Now the punter has recorded a success rate of 55% of his bets, thus meaning he is 5% above the average if he was just blindly betting on any bet. To test whether this is due to luck or wise betting we have to use what is called the "binomial test" or the "one sample z-test for proportions". ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you can help with the excel solution the above it would be great, I have tried the z test function and can get the 1 but when I apply the other examples it does not give me the answer I need and am doing something wrong. regards Pete -- (][ This Email has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus. ][) |