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"ncw" wrote:
I believe this difference constitutes a nontrivial error in the XNPV formula. Does it? (Rhetorical.) The XNPV value can be significantly different from the value computed using the sum of the PVs As I noted, that depends on how you compute the discounted cash flows ("PVs"). I am confident that the vast majority of financial professionals and academics would agree that XNPV function should use the expression (1+rate/365)^days instead of (1+rate)^(days/365) in the function. You're free to have an opinion. It's not uncommon for people to take strong stands on matters they know little about. I am not so confident that there is a consensus, much less a "vast majority", given that financial professionals and academics cannot agree on how to annualize a period IRR (multiply v. compound). And I think that would be much easier to agree upon than your issue. My first impression was similar to yours -- not what a "vast majority" might say, but simply which I would choose to do. However, after a millisecond of thought, several factors lead me to think that XNPV might be doing it correctly -- or at least, one correct way ;-). First, note that the formula used by XNPV is similar to that used by XIRR. That formula seems to make some sense for XIRR since it derives an annual rate. Of course, both could be wrong. But.... Second, the XIRR formula seems somewhat consistent with my interpretation of the (US) Truth in Lending and Truth in Savings regulations -- especially the latter. TIS computes APY by taking the simple rate of return (interest / principal) and amortizing by years and fractions thereof (365 / days). That is analogous to what XNPV does, namely discounting by years and fractions thereof (days / 365). TIL is more ambiguous to apply by analogy. Arguably, it allows for fractional unit rates, for example rate/365 for daily compounding. But for a unit period of a year -- arguably, the unit period for XIRR and XNPV -- fractional periods are computed by days/365. Of course, TIS and TIL have nothing to with NPV and IRR, which are the purview of financial analysis. And since I have neither time nor enthusiasm to research financial analysis texts to see if any demonstrate how to do such exact computations -- and I wouldn't be surprised if none does -- I cannot offer nor dispositively dispute an opinion on what the "vast majority" might conclude, if anything. |
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