Tricky vba Raffle Ticket Problem?
Many thanks in advance for any help on this one.
Here is the scenario: I would like to calculate the performance probabilities for each player in a raffle. Each player does not have the same number of tickets. Each player can win only one prize (once a player has won a prize, other drawn tickets for that player are void) All tickets are eventually drawn out. I am interested in the probability of each player winning 1st, 2nd, 3rd .. etc prize. This will be a function of the distribution of tickets. For 3 players this would be straight forward and could be done on the worksheet w/o any vba code, for example: If A has 3 tickets, B has 2 tickets, and C has 1 ticket then, P(A=1st) = 3/6 = 50%, P(B=1st) = 2/6, etc. P(A=2nd) = P(B=1st)*P(AC) + P(C=1st)*P(AB) = (2/6 * 3/4) + (1/6 * 3/5) P(A=3rd) = 1-P(A=1st)-P(A=2nd) The simple example above analyzes each permutation or outcome. A problem arises when there are a larger number of players involved. Outcomes/Permutations soon run into billions even for say 12 players there are 12P12 = 479 milion outcomes.I feel that there is likely to be ways of reducing the problem to a managable size. Has anyone got any ideas (and coding suggestions)? |
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