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I tried a couple of standard ways to generate random numbers that
follow Student's t-distribution. Something is very wrong, and I don't know what. Start with a simple example. In column A, I put 1000 uniformly distributed on (0,1) numbers, using RAND(). Then I apply to them the function TINV. E.g., in cell B1, I have =IF(A1<0.5,-TINV(2*A1,df),TINV(2*(1-A1),df)) where df is my degrees of freedom. I fixed df = 5. I obtain a column of (presumably) t-distributed numbers. I then check their excess kurtosis (as calculated by the KURT() function). As I was repeating this exercise using new random numbers, I found the sample kurtosis jumps around ~2.9 with a standard deviation of ~1.1. The theoretical value for the excess kurtosis of t distribution is 6 / (df - 4) = 6, and the theoretical stdev of the sample kurtosis itself is sqrt(24/1000) ~ 0.15. So I am puzzled as to why the excess kurtosis is so incredibly far off. Also puzzled by why it's so unstable. I then replaced Excel's rand() worksheet function with the Mersenne-Twister implementation in NtRand http://www.numtech.com/NtRand/. Similar result (the sample excess kurtosis jumps wildly but still very far below the theoretical value of 6). I then added another column of random uniform (0,1) numbers (in column C), and tried using instead the formula: =NORMSINV(A1)/SQRT(df/GAMMAINV(C1,df/2,2)) Similar result. I tried usign 60,000 instead of 1000 numbers. Now the theoretical stdev of the sample kurtosis is just 0.02. Similar result. I checked the variance and skewness, and those match their values ( df / df - 2 = 1.667 and 0 respectively) very closely. I checked the normal distribution, and its kurtosis matches the theoretical perfectly. I know I'm doing something wrong, but what? =( Thanks.... |
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