Trying to find the formulas to use to project the next probable occurance of
an event based on date and time....2 separate fields date in one time in the
other.
The events usually 3 or more.

P(a)=No ways event can happen/No possible outcomes.

Take throwing a 6 with a standard dice.

P(a)= 1/6

You need to be a lot more specific about what you are trying to predict if
you want to incorporate date/time into the equation.

"WR1CH" wrote:

Trying to find the formulas to use to project the next probable occurance of
an event based on date and time....2 separate fields date in one time in the
other.
The events usually 3 or more.

Mike
I am trying to predict the next date/time period that another crime will
occur based on the periods between the dates/times that have already occured.
Thanks

"Mike" wrote:

P(a)=No ways event can happen/No possible outcomes.

Take throwing a 6 with a standard dice.

P(a)= 1/6

You need to be a lot more specific about what you are trying to predict if
you want to incorporate date/time into the equation.

"WR1CH" wrote:

Trying to find the formulas to use to project the next probable occurance of
an event based on date and time....2 separate fields date in one time in the
other.
The events usually 3 or more.

Your best bet is to fit a curve to the 3 or more values
I'd ignore the times, if the dates are not too close

The advantage of a chart, is that as more data is added
the accuracy of the chart can be seen.

Much better of course if you weren't using crimes as data :)

Steve

On Tue, 06 Feb 2007 19:57:00 -0000, WR1CH
wrote:

Mike
I am trying to predict the next date/time period that another crime will
occur based on the periods between the dates/times that have already
occured.
Thanks

"Mike" wrote:

P(a)=No ways event can happen/No possible outcomes.

Take throwing a 6 with a standard dice.

P(a)= 1/6

You need to be a lot more specific about what you are trying to predict
if
you want to incorporate date/time into the equation.

"WR1CH" wrote:

Trying to find the formulas to use to project the next probable
occurance of
an event based on date and time....2 separate fields date in one time
in the
other.
The events usually 3 or more.



--
Steve (3)

Steve
Thanks for the response, actually the times are important as well.
In trying to predict a pattern for a crime...like burglary, we not only use
date and time of day that it happened but location as well. Of course the
location is mapped.
We need both the date and time to predict what day and what time of day to
patrol or stake out a potential area that a burglary, robbery or ? may take
place.
So I am trying to predict the next earliest and latest date and the time
range within those dates that the incident may likely occur. That way police
resources can be deployed with some statistical probability of
success....hopefully.
Rich

"SteveW" wrote:

Your best bet is to fit a curve to the 3 or more values
I'd ignore the times, if the dates are not too close

The advantage of a chart, is that as more data is added
the accuracy of the chart can be seen.

Much better of course if you weren't using crimes as data :)

Steve

On Tue, 06 Feb 2007 19:57:00 -0000, WR1CH
wrote:

Mike
I am trying to predict the next date/time period that another crime will
occur based on the periods between the dates/times that have already
occured.
Thanks

"Mike" wrote:

P(a)=No ways event can happen/No possible outcomes.

Take throwing a 6 with a standard dice.

P(a)= 1/6

You need to be a lot more specific about what you are trying to predict
if
you want to incorporate date/time into the equation.

"WR1CH" wrote:

Trying to find the formulas to use to project the next probable
occurance of
an event based on date and time....2 separate fields date in one time
in the
other.
The events usually 3 or more.



--
Steve (3)

I think you'd be better posting on a forum where the bad guys are
They obviously have the dates/times in a spreadsheet
and plan there future crimes accordingly :)

Steve

On Wed, 07 Feb 2007 03:09:00 -0000, WR1CH
wrote:

Steve
Thanks for the response, actually the times are important as well.
In trying to predict a pattern for a crime...like burglary, we not only
use
date and time of day that it happened but location as well. Of course the
location is mapped.
We need both the date and time to predict what day and what time of day
to
patrol or stake out a potential area that a burglary, robbery or ? may
take
place.
So I am trying to predict the next earliest and latest date and the time
range within those dates that the incident may likely occur. That way
police
resources can be deployed with some statistical probability of
success....hopefully.
Rich

"SteveW" wrote:

Your best bet is to fit a curve to the 3 or more values
I'd ignore the times, if the dates are not too close

The advantage of a chart, is that as more data is added
the accuracy of the chart can be seen.

Much better of course if you weren't using crimes as data :)

Steve

On Tue, 06 Feb 2007 19:57:00 -0000, WR1CH
wrote:

Mike
I am trying to predict the next date/time period that another crime
will
occur based on the periods between the dates/times that have already
occured.
Thanks

"Mike" wrote:

P(a)=No ways event can happen/No possible outcomes.

Take throwing a 6 with a standard dice.

P(a)= 1/6

You need to be a lot more specific about what you are trying to
predict
if
you want to incorporate date/time into the equation.

"WR1CH" wrote:

Trying to find the formulas to use to project the next probable
occurance of
an event based on date and time....2 separate fields date in one
time
in the
other.
The events usually 3 or more.

Are you working on the TV program "Numbers" <g
--
Bernard V Liengme
www.stfx.ca/people/bliengme
remove caps from email

"WR1CH" wrote in message
...
Trying to find the formulas to use to project the next probable occurance
of
an event based on date and time....2 separate fields date in one time in
the
other.
The events usually 3 or more.

I wish.......this is volunteer work at a police department.

"Bernard Liengme" wrote:

Are you working on the TV program "Numbers" <g
--
Bernard V Liengme
www.stfx.ca/people/bliengme
remove caps from email

"WR1CH" wrote in message
...
Trying to find the formulas to use to project the next probable occurance
of
an event based on date and time....2 separate fields date in one time in
the
other.
The events usually 3 or more.