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How do I determine which order to use in a polynomial trendline?
I have two years worth of monthly revenue data. I'd like to forecast the next
year based on this data. Should I use the polynomial trendline? If so, which order do I need to use? |
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#2
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How do I determine which order to use in a polynomial trendline?
Most business have a strong seasonal component which would typically involve
a Fourier analysis. After removing the seasonal component, you could look for a systematic trend, which might involve a low order polynomial. When fitting polynomials without a theoretical justification for the model, beware of overfitting the data. Jerry "Nina" wrote: I have two years worth of monthly revenue data. I'd like to forecast the next year based on this data. Should I use the polynomial trendline? If so, which order do I need to use? |
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